Through its first three years in MLS, FC Cincinnati was a laughingstock. Three years in the league, three dead-last finishes.
In October 2021, they hired Chris Albright away from the Philadelphia Union as sporting director. He brought Pat Noonan with him as the head coach. Two years later, FC Cincinnati is hosting the Eastern Conference final and is just two wins away from an MLS Cup — and they beat the Union to do it.
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FC Cincinnati got a late, if controversial, goal from Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee Yerson Mosquera in the fourth minute of second-half stoppage time to down Philadelphia 1-0 on Saturday night and advance to the conference final next week. They will host in-state rival the Columbus Crew for the right to play in MLS Cup.
It’s a remarkable turnaround for a club that just two years ago looked like they were far off from being competitive, let alone playing for a championship.
MOSQUERA'S MOMENT
Yerson Mosquera puts Cincinnati in front at the death!#AllForCincy // Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/JrG7L7pB8m
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 26, 2023
It looked certain that Mosquera’s game-winning goal would be called back for offside.
While the video replay angle provided on the broadcast was not straight down the line, it appeared as though Ian Murphy was offside when Álvaro Barreal’s ball was served into the box. Murphy headed the ball over to Mosquera for the finish, meaning the goal should have been wiped out.
Instead, after a VAR check, the goal stood.
A screenshot of the moment showed that Julián Carranza’s right foot may have been about even with Murphy’s right shoulder. But after the game, the broadcasters said that VAR had a “definitive” view down the top of the 18 yard box that showed Murphy was onside — Murphy was about six yards inside the box at the time the ball was played. That replay was never shown to viewers at home, however, leaving real doubt about the decisive, game-winning goal.
Not as intricate as @OffsideModeling , but just using the vanishing point to estimate looks like he was MAYBE off by a few inches. REALLY close pic.twitter.com/e2VuEpKR6C
— AP (@Interpearsonal) November 26, 2023
“I can’t say definitively whether it’s on or off,” Philadelphia Union coach Jim Curtin said. “From what I’ve heard context-wise from different people, it sounded like it was close.”
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Noonan also couldn’t commit to whether it was or was not offside.
“I honestly never saw it,” he said. “I heard a couple people talk about the angle not looking great initially but thinking there was somebody’s foot keeping him in an onside position, but honestly I can’t give you an answer if we got fortunate or if it was the right call.”
At bare minimum, it was a huge miss on the MLS-produced broadcast not to show the vital replay to the viewers. For the Union and their supporters, however, it was a controversial end to the season.
“We have an iPad on the bench, every player and coach that saw it said don’t worry it’s offside, it’s coming back,” Curtin said. “It’s also why we didn’t have a change immediately, it was so clear to everybody that was telling me. The word that we got from the center referee was that they did review it and it was deemed onside. They don’t have to answer any questions. They don’t get to sit up here with their season over like me.”
— Paul Tenorio and Pablo Maurer
Cincy forces Philly to lean into a weak area
In 2023, the Union ranked fifth in MLS by averaging 10.1 chances created per 90. A team-leading quarter of those — 2.56, for the pedants — came from the left foot of Kai Wagner. Even as Philadelphia struggles to convert those chances in the run of play, that type of dependable service from the flank is vital to round out a team playing with a narrow four-man midfield diamond in build-up.
Given how much of the Union’s DNA is part of this rebuilt FC Cincinnati, it isn’t a surprise that Noonan and his staff would look to force the Union wide to slow their build-up with a lack of width beyond the defensive line. Curtin undoubtedly would have expected that focus, and almost certainly would look to his full-backs to capitalize on a shared increase in touches.
Of course, viewers of the match didn’t see Wagner take the field at TQL Stadium. The German left back was instead serving the second match of his three-game suspension following an alleged racial slur directed at Bobby Wood in the team’s first playoff game against New England. Rather than just push the team to either flank, Cincinnati looked determined to shove the Union to the left as the team’s backup right back, Nathan Harriel, started on his weak side in Wagner’s stead.
Philadelphia’s right-channel touches were in line with their season average of 45%. But as their share in the central third dipped from 26% to 22%, leading to 5% more attacking touches down a left flank lacking its chief creator. The result: 5% fewer touches in areas that a team without a player of his ilk would rather makeweight his absence.
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In total, their 0.064 xG per shot showed a team grasping at straws. Long reliant on Daniel Gazdag’s record-setting penalty prowess to bail them out in close games this year, they found no such blow of the whistle in Cincinnati. And now, a year after being minutes away from winning MLS Cup, Philadelphia is unable to give themselves another crack at the trophy.
— Jeff Rueter
Is Philly’s window closed?
The Philadelphia Union has been the class of the Eastern Conference for half a decade, following Tata Martino’s Atlanta United, Jesse Marsch’s New York Red Bulls and Greg Vanney’s Toronto FC. That run has had its successes – Philly won the 2020 Supporters’ Shield and made the semifinal of the CONCACAF Champions League – but the big trophy has eluded them. Philly lost MLS Cup in 2022 to LAFC after conceding the latest goal in MLS playoff history and falling in the ensuing penalties.
Next year, though, the Union will enter a new era. Club captain Alejandro Bedoya is out of contract and has been told he’s not in the plans for next year. Wagner, the Best XI left back, is out of contract as well and has said publicly that he’s not returning. Star forward Julian Carranza has plenty of interest from European clubs for transfer. Jakob Glesnes has European interest, too.
“The offseason is really short, it tends to get shorter and shorter now,” Curtin said to the media after the game. “I’ve been on record a million times — Alejandro (Bedoya) is bigger than anybody that’s ever been at this club, myself included. He should 100% be back. His talk and play on the field speaks for itself. Anywhere in the world, the head coach would have a say with what happens with his captain … Ale has given this club everything.”
It won’t be a wholesale change, of course. Philadelphia extended the contracts of Curtin and sporting director Ernst Tanner this season. Star attacking midfielder Daniel Gazdag, goalkeeper Andre Blake, center back Jack Elliott and defensive midfielder Jose Martinez are under long-term contracts, so several players from the core remain for the future.
But even with that core intact, the Union will need to reinvent itself again. Philly has turned over the team a few times in recent years. From Haris Medunjanin to José Martinez, from Kacper Przybylko to Carranza, from Brenden Aaronson to Gazdag. So far, they’ve continued to move from one strong performer to the next without many hitches.
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This offseason is crucial again. A low-spending team that has continually exceeded expectations must now determine whether or not they’ll be able to avenge last fall’s MLS Cup heartbreak a year later than preferred.
— Tom Bogert
(Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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