Get your brightest suits and ruffled cummerbunds out, because it’s time to dance! That’s just about all the fooling around I have time for as we approach critical mass and the 2023 fantasy football playoffs — where every matchup choice is scrutinized to the point of obsession. I may not have a crystal ball or Gray’s Sports Almanac in my back pocket, but I am hoping to help you add some context to your decision-making process so that you might take home the gold.
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I dove neck-deep into the Tru Media database to combine and contrast over a dozen stats for each position to create a quantifiable ranking for each team. Then I incorporated the Week 15-17 schedule, going position by position with some notes to grade and tier the upcoming strength-of-schedule for each — potentially identifying the best spots to exploit or avoid. Here we go…
Running Back Playoff Matchups, Best to Worst
Najee Harris reclaimed his starter’s role over Jaylen Warren but both backs are still playable given the matchups and Mitch Trubisky’s limitations.
I took some flak ranking D’Andre Swift low to close out the fantasy regular season but it was based on matchups. If you made it this far with him, Swift’s got a real chance to make a huge difference. Roster Kenneth Gainwell as a stash-only.
Face it, you’re stuck rolling with Austin Ekeler. However, there could be a pathway to his usual PPR floor as a weekly underdog after earning five targets from backup Easton Stick. I’m pivoting to roster Isaiah Spiller as the next man up over Joshua Kelley.
It’s 2023 and Ezekiel Elliott is a must-start — what a world.
Kyren Williams is locked and loaded as a fantasy RB1, with Royce Freeman behind him as a low-end contingency plan.
Josh Jacobs earns an automatic nod when playing, but his injury status is yet to be determined. I believe Zamir White gets the base work in his absence but, given the expected game scripts on the horizon, I’d prefer Ameer Abdullah for the pass-catching role.
Rachaad White is playing his best football and is an unquestioned fantasy starter, just make sure you have a Chase Edmonds insurance plan.
Despite the Lions’ recent slide, you’re playing both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs every week without hesitation.
Alexander Mattison suffered an ankle injury, opening the door for Ty Chandler to make a tremendous impact in a primary role as a dual-threat RB in the fantasy playoffs. If he’s still available, empty the bank.
Three words — Barkley, Barkley and Barkley. Roster Matt Breida as a desperation handcuff with the lowest of expectations in even his best-case scenario.
Elite receiving usage plus high-value touches make Alvin Kamara an automatic RB1. Whenever Taysom Hill’s inactive, Jamaal Williams becomes an interesting stash as well.
Who is more desperate to get Isiah Pacheco back into their lineups, the Chiefs or fantasy managers? Without him, Clyde Edwards-Helaire earned the lion’s share of touches but lacks a true ceiling since Jerick McKinnon runs more routes and dominates red zone utilization.
Bijan Robinson could be the player to have if his usage pattern continues improving. Until then, calculate for a degree of Arthur Smith-driven frustration and roster Tyler Allgeier in the meantime.
Remember this exercise is not intended to imply Christian McCaffrey’s the 14th-ranked RB — he’s got the 14th-toughest schedule. McCaffrey’s the most valuable player in this game of ours — just don’t let that distract you from stashing Jordan Mason.
Hard getting truly excited to start AJ Dillon, but when you combine opportunity and opposition in this environment, you’ve got yourself an every-week RB — at least until Aaron Jones returns. Also, it’s a long shot, but Patrick Taylor makes for an interesting stash as the next-man-up.
Despite the horrific surrounding contextual environment, Chuba Hubbard’s become a playoff-worthy fantasy RB with Miles Sanders’ status stuck at bench-worthy.
To my surprise, the Bengals didn’t completely implode without Joe Burrow and still resemble an actual NFL offense. Joe Mixon gets a confident nod, with Chase Brown as one of, if not the most coveted handcuff going forward.
Plug Antonio Gibson into your lineup with confidence even if Brian Robinson manages to come back in Week 15. Washington’s going to be an underdog the rest of the way, likely creating the game script for Gibson to thrive.
No backfield may be harder to project for fantasy utilization than the Bears. Add in the fact that the best runner on the team plays under center and you can probably pass on Chicago RBs without regret.
Derrick Henry’s still the king of positive game scripts, which are now somehow firmly on deck with multiple key injuries ravaging the Texans. Put an ear to the ground to confirm Tyjae Spears has a place to call home — he’s among my favorite handcuffs and the only other Titan RB to garner a single touch this season for Mike Vrabel.
Zack Moss just compiled what may go down as the most frustrating two-game stretch in recent fantasy memory, but you must stay the course and remain true to the process. He’s earning more than 90% of the backfield touches, including all goal-line work in addition to a double-digit target share. In fact, the role is enviable enough to hold your nose and stash Trey Sermon, at least until Jonathan Taylor returns.
Travis Etienne has tough sledding ahead but it’s highly unlikely fantasy GMs have a better option. He’s still earning the lion’s share of Jaguars touches despite a slight fall from grace as an early candidate for fantasy MVP. D’Ernest Johnson must be rostered in 100% of leagues as the clear backup and only other Jacksonville RB with a single opportunity in the past two weeks.
Raheem Mostert continues defying injury-prone labels everywhere and remains a weekly RB1, with perhaps the most explosive back in the league behind him in De’Von Achane. Start your Dolphins with confidence and have at least one eyeball on Jeff Wilson, who could claim the Mostert role if he were to get injured.
Zach Wilson is back and, for the time being, showing he understands the assignment — get the ball to your two best players as often as possible. Breece Hall gets the weekly nod without a second thought even though there’s always the possibility of a low floor with this offense. Dalvin Cook may be the backup in terms of touch share, but I’d rather roster rookie Israel Abanikanda as my contingency plan.
James Cook’s pass-catching role with Josh Allen commands a weekly start but his ceiling is always capped without the goal-line carries. Backup Latavius Murray may sport the higher roster rate but I’d rather pivot to stash Ty Johnson.
Pretty standard operating procedure in Dallas. Start Tony Pollard, hoping for positive touchdown regression, while handcuffing him tightly to Rico Dowdle.
Baltimore’s three-man backfield with a prolific runner under center is right up there with Chicago in terms of unpredictability. I can sign off on starting Keaton Mitchell in a shallow RB2 pool, but it’s going to take efficiency since the volume’s just not there.
Time is running out for a Seattle team circling the drain after four straight losses and a very challenging playoff schedule ahead. Kenneth Walker is back on fantasy radars, reclaiming his starter’s role after a two-week absence, which probably knocks backup Zach Charbonnet out of fantasy viability.
I doubt there’s a better RB on your squad than Jerome Ford, so you’ll have to just hold your nose and start him. Knock Kareem Hunt down a peg to a bench-only spot, ready to break the glass in case of injury.
You have to start any RB with a 25-touch ceiling, I get it. James Conner is the man… when Arizona’s in a positive game script — I’m just not so certain they’ll be holding on to many leads going forward.
With an absolute gauntlet on the horizon, I’m benching this entire backfield until C.J. Stroud comes back.
Javonte Williams touches the ball too often to bench, but his floor is extremely low for at least the next two weeks. There won’t be any better substitutes on the wire, so hope he falls into the end zone. Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine cancel each other out, making them hard to roster.
Quarterback/Wide Receiver Playoff Matchups, Best to Worst
First, start your Seahawks WRs, Geno Smith or not, and then pray Smith comes back fully healthy. I never thought I’d say this, but Drew Lock may be an interesting stream for the needy if he doesn’t.
Levis scares the life out of me but you could do worse if you lost your star QB. Veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins is also in-line to close out really strong for fantasy managers.
Mitch Trubisky single-handedly sinks most hope for an aerial breakout from the Steelers down the stretch, but Diontae Johnson is still a volume-based must-play WR.
Sometimes, matchups aren’t everything. Run for the hills. I’d keep an eye out for Marquise Brown’s status coming off the bye but I’m otherwise out altogether. Kyler Murray is on the short list of startable QBs without a viable surrounding cast.
Start those stud Eagles WRs with confidence. Jalen Hurts goes without saying.
Courtland Sutton cannot be denied, that part is simple. As the last Jerry Jeudy truther on the planet, I think he’s the ancillary player who could move the playoff needle out of nowhere because I also believe the best of Russell Wilson as a Bronco is yet to come.
You can’t pay the mortgage with air yards but what choice do you have other than to play Chris Olave every week? I wouldn’t touch any other WR in New Orleans, even with this soft schedule.
In what was supposed to be a glorious end-of-season run for Nico Collins and Tank Dell, the Texans’ cupboard is suddenly bare. The supply of NFL pass-catchers is thin enough that Noah Brown and John Metchie should be rostered, especially if C.J. Stroud emerges from concussion protocol quickly.
Don’t overthink the Niners’ skill position players — start them and go for a nice walk.
No, thank you. All kidding aside though, seriously no thanks.
Justin Jefferson’s status hasn’t been determined, but if he’s wearing a helmet, he’s playing for our fantasy teams. Until then, remember that sometimes changing the quarterback can also change the target structure, and WR Jalen Nailor led the way last week with Nick Mullens under center.
Matthew Stafford looks sharp, giving Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp a bright green light going forward. Of all available quarterbacks, Stafford is my most likely to get us to the promised land.
Aidan O’Connell’s struggles may be dragging down the entire Raiders WR room, but the narrow target tree keeps Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in the back-end WR2/3 playoff conversation.
Jayden Reed’s emergence earns him a spot in any fantasy format. There was some concern that Dontayvion Wicks could eat into Romeo Doubs’ production (after they destroy Tampa Bay that is), but initial reports are that Wicks suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 14. Jordan Love spreads it around and can run when needed — he’s another potential slate-breaker in the first round this weekend.
Sadly, the Chiefs WR room and ambiguous projectability go together like spaghetti and meatballs. Rashee Rice is the only pass-catcher worth your attention. Perfect time for me to take the L on Justin Watson.
Zay Flowers hasn’t come out of lineups in months, and with good reason — but I think it’s the late-season breakout for Odell Beckham Jr. off the waiver wire that wins trophies this year.
It’s too hard to trust our playoff futures with anyone in Buffalo not named Stefon Diggs.
Yes, Joe Flacco’s return lit a fire under an otherwise extinguished Browns pass attack, even at 38 years young. Due credit aside, I’m not extending my playoff hand to any of Cleveland’s WRs other than Amari Cooper. Regression is likely coming for Grandpa Joe.
Drake London looks like a bona fide fantasy star. Talent plus opportunity equals a playoff start, but temper those expectations when Desmond Ridder’s under pressure against the Panthers and Bears.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, aka The Sun God, gets the automatic start rain or shine, but after that it’s entirely too foggy for me. I’ve chased Josh Reynolds at points this season to no avail because he always cedes targets to either Kalif Raymond or Jameson Williams. There’s simply too many similar Lions players vying for the same looks.
Find me the team starting Carolina Panthers that is also in the fantasy playoffs. You can’t.
It’s Garrett Wilson or bust. And it would take a miracle to convince me to start Zach Wilson with your season on the line.
Keenan Allen vaulted nearly every roster he graced into the playoffs and now those GMs will need to lower expectations without Justin Herbert. Continue starting Allen with reasonable expectations for volume, but please do not buy the Quentin Johnston fake-out breakout.
Michael Pittman is among the most obvious decisions in this game of ours, and yet I might say the exact opposite for Josh Downs. Increased attention to Colts tight ends has resulted in a dwindling target share for Downs. Given the relative strength of their upcoming opponents, it might be high time to hit the eject button.
CeeDee Lamb is inevitable, that much is clear. Watch out for any rage-drops of Brandin Cooks coming off a bad game. The Cowboys have tough matchups, but also high implied team totals, on the horizon, which are conducive to throwing.
Lock in Mike Evans without a second thought. And don’t look now but Chris Godwin could finally be ready to break out and pay off his draft day cost. I love buying low on players we know are good.
It’s Week 15 and the Jaguars’ WR situation isn’t any clearer than it was back in August. Despite losing Christian Kirk, targets are still up for grabs and being equally split, for the time being, among Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, and Parker Washington. If forced to choose out of desperation, give me Zay Jones to close it out.
Kudos to Jake Browning for showing the world what a quality backup QB should look like. That said, it’s actually been the Bengals RBs carrying the pass attack with yards-after-the-catch. Hold your nose and start Ja’Marr Chase, but you’ll have to replace Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd with several tough secondaries on deck. I’m out on Browning for the fantasy playoffs.
The Justin Fields to DJ Moore battery proved it stands up to scrutiny. Rock steady with the one Bear that got you there and wholly ignore the rest.
Demario Douglas continues to top the drop charts after a nasty concussion, but he isn’t bad, he’s hurt. You could also argue Douglas is New England’s most dynamic offensive threat and, at only 20% rostered, could be one of the sneaky answers for your FLEX if he returns for the playoffs.
Benching Terry McLaurin could be the toughest decision you make this season but, as they say, hard times build character. Eric Bieniemy’s sharing-is-caring offense creates havoc for fantasy gamers, and to be honest, the only WR I’d have any degree of confidence in is Curtis Samuel.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be driving fantasy gamers nuts for the next three weeks. They got you this far, but that could be the end of the road after losing their starting center and facing the league’s most difficult waters up ahead. I can’t tell you to bench them, but I also wouldn’t count my winnings too soon.
Tight End Playoff Matchups, Best to Worst
Tight end scoring is more consolidated than running back or wide receiver, with a lower floor, which creates player availability. Therefore, fantasy GMs can and should be more fluid in approach. So, if you find yourself in a streaming situation, keep referring back to the list below.
DST
Resident DST/IDP expert Gary Davenport has you covered with a DST primer and IDP matchup spectacular.
Whoa, that was a metric ton. Though we won’t be hosting a Q&A this Sunday, I do invite you to comment below with any questions — I’ll do my very best to get to them all. From the bottom of my heart, thank you all for a wonderful season. All of us here at The Athletic would like to extend our holiday wishes to you and yours. Good luck!
(Photo of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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