NFL Week 16 expert picks and odds for Cowboys vs. Dolphins, 49ers vs. Ravens and every other game ·

11 Jun 2024, 00:00

The Athletic has live coverage of Saints vs Rams on Thursday Night Football.

We are getting into the stretch run of the 2023 NFL season and the Week 16 slate is full of games with major playoff implications. That even includes Thursday’s game between the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and the Los Angeles Rams (7-7) as they both fight for playoff spots in the NFC.

Overall, there are eight games this week where both teams are either occupying a playoff spot or within a single game of a playoff spot. The two best matchups on paper are probably Sunday’s game in Miami, where the Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys, and Monday’s featuring the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Baltimore Ravens. Both are realistic Super Bowl previews.

The Dallas-Miami game is arguably the most intriguing because both teams have big questions to answer. Dallas needs to show it can play winning football and score points away from AT&T Stadium. Miami needs to silence a two-year narrative that it can’t beat playoff-caliber teams.

There are three teams this week that are double-digit favorites, including the white-hot Buffalo Bills, who are massive road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers (fresh off a 63-point beatdown against Las Vegas). The Kansas City Chiefs are double-digit favorites against the Raiders as they look to clinch their eighth straight AFC West title, while the Eagles are similar favorites despite their recent struggles. They are more than 10-point favorites against Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants.

This week’s biggest total is the Dolphins-Cowboys game, where the over/under is set at 51.5 points.

The lowest total is in Denver where the New England Patriots and Broncos have an over/under of just 34.5 points. There’s a good chance of snow on Sunday afternoon going into the evening in the Mile High City.

All odds from BetMGM. Looking for NFL tickets? Buy them here.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday)

The Rams and Saints are two of five NFC teams tied with a 7-7 record. The Saints are in contention for both the NFC South title and a Wild Card berth, while the Rams’ only path to the playoffs is via the Wild Card.
After dealing with mid-season struggles and injuries, Matthew Stafford has returned to form, throwing 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the previous four games.
Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua leads the Rams and ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,163.
Despite missing the season’s first three games due to suspension, Alvin Kamara leads the league in targets and receptions for running backs (78 targets, 68 receptions).

Unless Kenny Pickett can play, the Steelers will turn to their third different starting quarterback of the season and roll the dice with Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers are scoring fewer points per game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada than they did with him.
Injuries will play a huge role here as the Bengals will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, while Pittsburgh will be without both starting safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick to injury and Damontae Kazee to suspension) and is still without both starting middle linebackers.
The Bengals are a slight road favorite. The Steelers are 17-6-3 against the spread as home underdogs since 2004. They are 2-2 this season.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (Saturday)

The Bills (8-6) have won three of their last four games, including back-to-back victories over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys.
Second-year running back James Cook overwhelmed the vaunted Cowboys defense, setting a career-high in total yardage for a single game with 221. Cook scored two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving.
If Buffalo can win their next two games (at Chargers, vs. Patriots) and the Miami Dolphins lose one of their next two (vs. Cowboys, at Ravens), first place in the AFC East would be decided by the Week 18 matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.
Giff Smith has taken over as interim head coach for Brandon Staley, who was fired after the Chargers Week 15 loss.
The Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8), surrendering a franchise-record 63 points.

Starting in place of the injured Geno Smith, Drew Lock finished a 92-yard game-winning drive with a touchdown pass to rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba with just 28 seconds left last week.
The victory over the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) snapped the Seahawks’ four-game losing streak.
If Seattle wins its final three games, the Seahawks will make the playoffs if the Rams or Vikings lose a game.
The Titans (5-9) were eliminated from playoff contention with their Week 15 overtime loss to the Houston Texans.
Titans running back Derrick Henry gained 10 total yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to produce fewer than 15 yards on at least 20 touches.

Quarterback Desmond Ridder has been benched again following another brutal game-deciding interception on Sunday. Taylor Heinicke gets the start for the Falcons.
The Colts hold the seventh playoff spot in the AFC despite being down their starting quarterback, starting running back and also having a rookie head coach. They are also eighth in the league in points scored, averaging 24.6 per game.
The Colts were favorites, but the spread has moved to Atlanta. The Colts are a perfect 5-0 against the spread as favorites this season and 5-1 against the spread in their past six games overall.
Even with back-to-back losses and a 6-8 record, the Falcons are still just a game out of the division lead and still have a shot at a home playoff game.

Sunday’s game against Chicago was the fourth time the Cleveland Browns won a game this season after their win probability dropped below 15 percent. No team in the league has won more games in that manner.
The Texans have not done well when a lot has been expected of them this season. They are just 1-5 against the spread as favorites.
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud was still in concussion protocol as of Tuesday morning. That could leave Case Keenum as a potential starter for the second week in a row.
Cleveland owns the top wild-card spot in the AFC, while the Texans have played their way into a three-way tie with Houston and Indianapolis at the top of the AFC South.

After a three-game winning streak from Weeks 11-13, the Green Bay Packers (6-8) lost back-to-back games to the New York Giants (5-9) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7).
Entering Week 15, Green Bay held the seventh and final NFC playoff spot. The ensuing loss dropped the Packers behind Los Angeles, Seattle, New Orleans and Atlanta and left them currently out of the playoffs.
The Packers’ defense has surrendered an average of 402.8 yards and 23.8 points per game over their last five.
Panthers quarterback and first-overall pick Bryce Young hasn’t thrown for 200 or more yards since Week 8. Young has been under 200 passing yards in 11 of 15 games in his rookie season.

This is the only meaningless matchup in the NFL this week as both the Commanders and Jets have been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Jets playoff drought now sits at 13 consecutive seasons, the longest active drought in the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL.
The Commanders have allowed 35.6 points per game during their five-game losing streak. They are playing a Jets team that has averaged just 11 points per game over its past eight games. Something has to give here.
Despite getting benched on Sunday (and outplayed by backup Jacoby Brissett) Sam Howell will remain the Commanders’ starting quarterback.

A victory over the Minnesota Vikings (7-7) would clinch the NFC North for the Detroit Lions (10-4). For the Vikings to win the division, they would have to win their final three games (two games against Detroit and a home game against Green Bay) and Detroit would have to lose their last three.
Detroit technically hasn’t clinched a playoff berth, but are a virtual lock.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff became the second quarterback this season to throw for five touchdown passes in Week 15 versus the Denver Broncos (7-7), tying a career-high.
Minnesota has lost three of its last four games after a five-game winning streak from Weeks 6-10. The Vikings currently hold the sixth seed for the NFC playoffs.
The Vikings haven’t thrown for 300 yards in a single game since losing Kirk Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 7. Minnesota has only surpassed 250 passing yards three times over that stretch.

Already dealing with an ankle injury, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence entered the concussion protocol following the loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Lawrence has never missed a game in his NFL career.
After having what looked to be a dominant lead in the AFC South, the Jaguars enter the week in a three-way tie with Indianapolis and Houston for the top spot in the division. The Buccaneers are tied with New Orleans for the top spot in the NFC South.
Baker Mayfield has thrown seven touchdowns to only one interception during the Buccaneers’ current three-game winning streak.
Running back Rachaad White continues to be an impact player for the Buccaneers, rushing for 375 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and accounting for another 115 yards through the air over the past four games. He also has three touchdowns during that stretch.

The Arizona Cardinals (3-11) have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Chicago Bears (5-9) would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Cardinals.
The Cardinals and Bears own three of the first five picks in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. The Bears hold the rights to the Carolina Panthers 2024 first-round pick, which now sits at first overall.
Since his return from injury in Week 15, Kyler Murray has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game.
Justin Fields has thrown for multiple touchdowns in just two of 10 starts this season.

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins

The Cowboys still hold the top spot in the NFC East despite getting dominated by Buffalo last week, while the Dolphins are trying to hold off the Bills for the top spot in the AFC East.
The Cowboys are a dramatically different team on the road than at home. The offense averages 10 fewer points per game on the road, while they have lost three games by double digits away from AT&T Stadium.
The Dolphins have struggled to beat playoff-caliber teams under coach Mike McDaniel and get three huge tests the rest of the way against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo.
Even without Tyreek Hill, Miami still scored 30 points against the Jets on Sunday. Hill needs 458 yards (152 per game) over the Dolphins final three games to reach the 2,000-yard mark. Calvin Johnson holds the NFL record with 1,964 yards in a season.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos (7-7) have won four straight games at Empower Field. There’s a chance this game features snow during the game.
Denver must win their three remaining games and get help from various tiebreaker scenarios to make the playoffs. Austin Mock’s NFL projection model gives the Broncos less than a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The New England Patriots (3-11) currently hold the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, sitting one game behind the Panthers (2-10), who traded their pick to the Bears.
If New England and Carolina finish the season with identical records, the team with the lower strength of schedule would earn the No. 1 overall pick. New England currently has the lower strength of schedule, .524 to .526.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday)

These are not the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes Chiefs we are used to seeing. Only one of their seven home games this season has hit the over in total points. The over/under for Monday is 43 points.
The Chiefs can clinch their eighth consecutive AFC West crown with a win.
Before Thursday’s 63-point outburst against the Chargers, the Raiders scored only 76 points combined in their previous five games, including just 46 in the previous four games.
Good news for the Chiefs’ offense: Running back Isiah Pacheco is expected to return for Week 16 after missing the previous two games and undergoing a procedure on his shoulder.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Monday)

The Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) have clinched a playoff berth and can clinch the NFC East by winning their final three games.
For Philadelphia to earn the top seed in the NFC, they would have to win their final three games, the 49ers (11-3) lose at least two of their last three, and the Lions (10-4) lose one of their final three.
The Eagles offense has struggled as of late, failing to reach 20 points in three straight games, all losses.
The Athletic’s NFL projection model has the Giants picking sixth in the 2024 NFL Draft. They aren’t officially eliminated but have only a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (Monday)

This is a potential Super Bowl preview and the only meeting of the week between two teams that have already clinched playoff spots. The 49ers have already won the NFC West, while the Ravens are in the driver’s seat for the AFC North.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has had a passer rating of 123.0 or higher in five of his past six starts. He has thrown 10 touchdowns to only one interception in his past three starts.
Despite their dominance, the 49ers are 0-3 against the spread in their past three home games. The 49ers are nearly a touchdown favorite against the Ravens. The Ravens are 1-5 against the spread in their past six road games.
The Ravens and 49ers both enter Monday’s game in the top five in both points scored and points against. Baltimore is fourth in points scored and second in points against, while San Francisco is third in points scored and second in points against.

(Photo of Dak Prescott: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)

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NFL Week 16 expert picks and odds for Cowboys vs. Dolphins, 49ers vs. Ravens and every other game